Has anyone backtested box size and reversal criteria on Point and Figure charts specifically for SPX iron condor strike selection? Is it worth incorporating into a daily trading approach?

At VixShield, we focus exclusively on 1DTE SPX Iron Condors placed after the 3:10 PM CST close using our proprietary Expected Daily Range (EDR) indicator and RSAi for strike selection. While Point and Figure charts with varying box sizes and reversal criteria can offer visual trend clarity on longer timeframes, our backtested methodology from 2015 through 2025 shows they add limited edge for daily 1DTE strike decisions compared to EDR and RSAi. Russell Clark's SPX Mastery approach prioritizes mathematically optimized wings that target specific credit levels across three risk tiers: Conservative at 0.70 credit with approximately 90 percent win rate, Balanced at 1.15 credit, and Aggressive at 1.60 credit. These are derived from blending short-term implied volatility via VIX9D, historical volatility, and real-time skew analysis rather than static P&F parameters. Box size adjustments on P&F, such as using a 10-point box with three-box reversal for SPX around 7138.80, might highlight support near 7100 or resistance at 7200 in a contango regime where VIX sits at 17.95. However, our testing revealed that adapting these dynamically each day often lagged the precision of EDR projections, which update in real time to forecast the likely daily range and recommend High, Medium, or Low strike sets. Incorporating P&F would require constant recalibration of box size based on volatility regimes, potentially complicating the Set and Forget nature of our trades where we define risk at entry with no stop losses and rely on Theta Time Shift for any recovery. The ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge remains our primary protection layer, rolled on fixed schedules to cut drawdowns by 35 to 40 percent during spikes above VIX 20, regardless of chart patterns. In current conditions with VIX at 17.95 below its five-day moving average of 18.58, all three Iron Condor tiers remain available under our VIX Risk Scaling rules. Traders experimenting with P&F for confirmation might test a fixed 20-point box and three-box reversal against historical 1DTE outcomes, but our data indicates it rarely improves the 82 to 84 percent overall win rate of the Unlimited Cash System when EDR and RSAi are properly applied. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper insight into optimizing strike selection without added complexity, explore the SPX Mastery book series and join our live sessions at VixShield.com.