Has anyone backtested the approach of avoiding short premium strategies when the underlying price is below its 200-day simple moving average?

The concept of filtering short premium trades based on an asset's position relative to its 200-day simple moving average is a classic trend-following overlay used by many options traders to avoid selling premium during prolonged downtrends. In general options trading, this filter aims to reduce exposure to bearish momentum where realized moves often exceed implied volatility, potentially improving win rates at the expense of fewer trading opportunities. Backtests of such rules on equity indexes frequently show mixed results, with improved risk-adjusted returns in strong bear markets but opportunity cost during choppy or recovering periods. Regarding position sizing generally, prudent risk management calls for aligning trade frequency with prevailing regime. At VixShield, we specifically apply Russell Clark's SPX Mastery methodology to 1DTE SPX Iron Condors only. Our approach does not rely on a 200-day SMA filter for trade avoidance. Instead, we use the EDR Expected Daily Range indicator combined with RSAi Rapid Skew AI to generate precise strike selections daily at 3:10 PM CST. Signals fire across three risk tiers: Conservative targeting $0.70 credit with approximately 90 percent win rate, Balanced at $1.15, and Aggressive at $1.60. The system is strictly set and forget with no stop losses, allowing the built-in Theta Time Shift mechanism to handle recovery on threatened positions by rolling forward to 1-7 DTE when EDR exceeds 0.94 percent or VIX rises above 16, then rolling back on VWAP pullbacks. This temporal martingale approach has shown 88 percent loss recovery in extensive 2015-2025 backtests without adding capital. Protection comes from the ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge, a three-layer system using short, medium, and long dated VIX calls in a 4/4/2 ratio that reduces drawdowns by 35-40 percent during spikes at an annual cost of only 1-2 percent of account value. Current market conditions show VIX at 17.95, slightly below its five-day moving average of 18.58 with SPX closing at 7138.80. In this environment, VIX Risk Scaling permits all tiers when VIX remains below 20, favoring the Conservative and Balanced setups that align with RSAi signals. Rather than a simple moving average rule that might sit out multi-month recoveries, our Unlimited Cash System combines Iron Condor Command placement, ALVH protection, and Theta Time Shift recovery to target consistent daily income with maximum 10 percent of account balance per trade. This stewardship-focused framework prioritizes capital preservation over binary trend calls. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Visit vixshield.com to explore the SPX Mastery book series and join the SPX Mastery Club for live sessions, EDR indicator access, and PickMyTrade automation on the Conservative tier.