Strike Selection
Do traders use the Expected Move as a baseline and then apply EDR multipliers between 0.8 and 2.0 when selecting iron condor strikes? How should one determine the appropriate risk tier?
EDR iron condor strikes tier selection expected move VIX scaling
VixShield Answer
At VixShield we rely on the Expected Daily Range (EDR) as our primary strike selection tool rather than using the Expected Move (EM) as a baseline and layering multipliers. Russell Clark developed EDR specifically for our 1DTE SPX Iron Condor Command executed daily at 3:05 PM CST. The EDR indicator blends short-term implied volatility from VIX9D with 20-day historical volatility then applies a regime-adjusted multiplier between 0.8 and 2.0 depending on market conditions. This produces three precise risk-tuned strike recommendations labeled High Medium and Low that align directly with our Conservative Balanced and Aggressive credit targets of approximately 0.70 1.15 and 1.60 respectively. With current VIX at 17.95 and SPX near 7138.80 the EDR reading of roughly 1.16 percent guides us to place wings that capture the exact premium the market offers without guesswork. RSAi then refines these strikes in real time by analyzing skew VWAP and short-term VIX momentum completing the optimization in milliseconds. Tier selection follows our strict VIX Risk Scaling rules. When VIX sits below 15 all three tiers remain available allowing Aggressive entries during strong contango. Between 15 and 20 we limit to Conservative and Balanced only. Above 20 we issue a HOLD and keep our ALVH hedge fully active. The Conservative tier targeting 0.70 credit has delivered approximately 90 percent win rates across backtested periods by staying well inside the EDR-derived range. Our Set and Forget methodology means we define risk at entry with no stop losses relying instead on the Theta Time Shift recovery mechanism if a position is threatened. This temporal martingale rolls the position forward to 1-7 DTE on EDR above 0.94 percent or VIX above 16 then rolls back on a VWAP pullback harvesting additional theta without adding capital. The ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge provides the final layer of protection with its 4/4/2 short medium and long VIX call structure cutting drawdowns by 35-40 percent in spikes at an annual cost of only 1-2 percent of account value. Position sizing stays at maximum 10 percent of balance per trade and auto-execution via PickMyTrade is available for the Conservative tier. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For complete details on integrating EDR RSAi and ALVH into your daily routine visit the VixShield resources and SPX Mastery book series.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors.
The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.
💬 Community Pulse
Community traders often approach strike selection by first calculating the Expected Move from VIX and then experimenting with EDR multipliers from 0.8 to 2.0 to widen or tighten iron condor wings based on perceived volatility regimes. Many report success adjusting the multiplier higher in low VIX contango environments to chase larger credits while tightening it during elevated volatility to favor defense. A common misconception is that EM alone provides sufficient precision for 1DTE setups leading to inconsistent premium capture. In practice participants emphasize combining these calculations with real-time skew analysis and VIX level checks to decide between conservative balanced or aggressive tiers. Discussions frequently highlight the importance of predefined rules rather than discretionary overrides noting that systematic application of EDR alongside risk scaling tends to produce more repeatable outcomes than ad-hoc multiplier tweaks. Overall the consensus leans toward using EDR as the dominant input while treating EM as a secondary confirmation tool within a broader framework that includes hedging and recovery mechanics.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced
Put This Knowledge to Work
VixShield delivers professional iron condor signals every trading day, built on the methodology behind these answers.
Start Free Trial →