Do you factor net present value into the position sizing of your daily SPX iron condors, or is the approach based entirely on expected value and win rate?

At VixShield we approach position sizing for our daily 1DTE SPX Iron Condors through a disciplined framework centered on risk management, expected value, and consistent win probability rather than net present value calculations. Russell Clark's SPX Mastery methodology emphasizes capital preservation first, with position size capped at a maximum of 10 percent of account balance per trade. This keeps drawdowns manageable even during the rare losing sequences that occur despite our Conservative tier's approximately 90 percent win rate. NPV, while a valuable corporate finance concept for evaluating long-term projects with multi-year cash flows, does not drive our daily options income process. Our trades are short-duration defined-risk setups that settle the next day, so the time value of money adjustment captured by NPV is negligible compared with the immediate impact of theta decay and our Theta Time Shift recovery mechanics. Instead we rely on three risk-tuned credit targets: Conservative at 0.70, Balanced at 1.15, and Aggressive at 1.60. These targets are generated each trading day at 3:10 PM CST by RSAi, our proprietary Rapid Skew AI engine that blends real-time options skew, EDR (Expected Daily Range), and VIX momentum to select optimal strikes. The Conservative tier, for example, typically delivers an expected daily return of roughly 0.7 percent on margin with an 18-out-of-20 winning days profile, allowing compounding without excessive leverage. We layer protection through ALVH, our Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge, which uses a 4/4/2 ratio of short, medium, and long-dated VIX calls. This first-of-its-kind system reduces portfolio drawdowns by 35 to 40 percent during volatility spikes at an annual cost of only 1 to 2 percent of account value. When VIX sits at its current level of 17.95 we remain in Balanced-to-Conservative mode per our VIX Risk Scaling rules, avoiding the Aggressive tier until VIX drops below 15. The Set and Forget structure means we define risk at entry, collect premium, and let expiration do the work. On the infrequent days when a wing is tested, Theta Time Shift rolls the position forward to capture vega expansion then back on a VWAP pullback, turning most paper losses into net credits without adding capital. This temporal martingale approach, validated in 2015-2025 backtests, recovered 88 percent of losses while keeping sizing fixed. Expected value and win rate therefore form the core of our sizing logic because they directly translate into sustainable daily income. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. To see the complete daily signals, EDR indicator settings, and ALVH implementation details, visit VixShield.com and explore the SPX Mastery resources.