Strike Selection
How does VixShield incorporate the Expected Move versus the EDR indicator during the pre-close scan? Does an Expected Move exceeding 0.94 percent of the SPX level actually trigger the Temporal Theta Martingale roll forward?
EDR Expected Move pre-close scan Temporal Theta Martingale RSAi
VixShield Answer
At VixShield, we integrate the Expected Move and our proprietary EDR indicator as complementary tools in our daily pre-close scan, which occurs in the 15-minute window after the 3:09 PM CST SPX cascade. The Expected Move, calculated as approximately SPX times VIX divided by the square root of 252, gives us a one-standard-deviation projection of the likely daily price range. With the current VIX at 17.95 and SPX near 7138.80, this typically yields an Expected Move around 0.85 to 1.10 percent depending on the exact inputs. EDR, our custom TradingView indicator blending VIX9D implied volatility with 20-day historical volatility and a regime-adjusted multiplier, refines this further by generating three tiered strike recommendations: High, Medium, and Low. RSAi then layers real-time skew analysis, VWAP positioning, and short-term VIX momentum to finalize the exact Iron Condor Command strikes that match our credit targets of roughly 0.70 for Conservative, 1.15 for Balanced, and 1.60 for Aggressive. We run this scan every market day at 3:10 PM CST to align with our After-Close PDT Shield timing, ensuring all positions are 1DTE only. The Temporal Theta Martingale roll is not triggered solely by an Expected Move greater than 0.94 percent of SPX. Instead, the forward roll to 1-7 DTE activates when EDR exceeds 0.94 percent or VIX rises above 16, allowing us to capture vega expansion during volatility spikes while keeping position size fixed. We then monitor for a rollback trigger when EDR falls below 0.94 percent and SPX trades below VWAP, harvesting theta on the recovery. This pioneering temporal martingale approach, combined with our ALVH three-layer VIX hedge rolled on its specific schedule, has shown an 88 percent loss recovery rate in backtests from 2015 to 2025. Our Set and Forget methodology means no stop losses or intraday management. Position sizing remains at a maximum of 10 percent of account balance per trade, and we only auto-execute the Conservative tier via PickMyTrade. The Theta Time Shift mechanism provides zero-loss recovery by design. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper implementation details on the Iron Condor Command, ALVH, and Temporal Theta Martingale, we invite you to explore the SPX Mastery book series and join the VixShield platform for daily signals and live sessions.
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The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.
💬 Community Pulse
Community traders often approach the Expected Move versus EDR comparison by treating the Expected Move as a quick volatility gauge derived directly from VIX while viewing EDR as the more precise strike-selection engine that incorporates both implied and historical components. A common misconception is that any reading above 0.94 percent automatically forces a Temporal Theta Martingale roll, yet practitioners emphasize that the full set of conditions including VIX level, skew via RSAi, and VWAP confirmation must align before initiating a forward roll to 1-7 DTE. Many note that during contango regimes with VIX below 20, the scan favors placing fresh 1DTE Iron Condors across all risk tiers, whereas elevated readings prompt a shift to Conservative only or full pause with ALVH remaining active. Discussions frequently highlight how blending these indicators reduces false signals compared to relying on Expected Move in isolation, leading to more consistent premium capture near the 0.70 to 1.60 credit range while protecting against volatility expansions through layered VIX hedges.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced
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