Strike Selection
How do you select strikes for the After-Close PDT Shield trades? Is the Expected Daily Range (EDR) the primary driver, or do you place greater weight on RSAi skew analysis?
strike selection EDR RSAi iron condor after-close timing
VixShield Answer
At VixShield, we select strikes for our After-Close PDT Shield trades through a disciplined integration of the Expected Daily Range (EDR) and RSAi (Rapid Skew AI). The process begins at 3:10 PM CST each market day, immediately after SPX settlement, ensuring we operate outside PDT day-trade restrictions while capturing fresh closing volatility data. EDR serves as the foundational layer, providing our proprietary forecast of the day's likely price excursion by blending short-term implied volatility from VIX9D with 20-day historical volatility, scaled by a regime-adjusted multiplier between 0.8 and 2.0. For instance, with SPX recently closing at 7173.91 and VIX at 18.14, an EDR reading around 1.25 percent might project a roughly 90-point daily range, guiding our initial wing placement roughly 1.0 to 1.5 times that expected move for the Conservative tier. This creates defined-risk Iron Condors with approximately 90 percent historical win rates on the Conservative side. RSAi then acts as the real-time refinement engine, analyzing the current options skew surface, last four hours of VIX momentum, and exact positioning relative to VWAP. It adjusts strikes in $5 increments, alternating call and put wings until the net credit precisely matches our tier targets: typically $0.65 for Conservative, $1.10 for Moderate, and $1.55 for Aggressive. In the current VIX environment near 18.14, which sits in the 15-20 range, we limit ourselves to Conservative and Moderate tiers only, blocking Aggressive entries per our VIX Risk Scaling rules. ALVH, our Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge, runs in parallel across all tiers with its 4/4/2 contract ratio on short, medium, and long-dated VIX calls, cutting drawdowns by 35-40 percent during spikes at an annual cost of just 1-2 percent of account value. This combination embodies our Set and Forget methodology: no stop losses, full reliance on Theta Time Shift for any recovery. Position sizing remains capped at 10 percent of account balance per trade, preserving capital across the approximately 18 winning days out of 20 that Conservative traders have historically enjoyed. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper examples and live signal walkthroughs, explore our SPX Mastery resources and consider joining the VixShield community for daily 3:10 PM CST alerts and PickMyTrade auto-execution on the Conservative tier.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors.
The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.
💬 Community Pulse
Community traders often approach strike selection by debating the balance between statistical range forecasts and real-time options flow signals. A common misconception is that one tool alone suffices, with some favoring pure volatility projections while others chase premium levels without regard for underlying skew. In practice, experienced participants emphasize combining a daily expected-move calculator with dynamic adjustment for implied volatility surfaces and intraday momentum. Many note that in moderate VIX regimes around 18, conservative credit targets near 65 cents deliver higher consistency than chasing larger premiums. Discussions frequently highlight the value of post-close timing to avoid intraday noise and the importance of predefined risk tiers rather than discretionary overrides. Overall, the consensus leans toward systematic integration of range and skew metrics, aligning closely with methodologies that prioritize defined-risk, theta-positive setups executed in a narrow after-close window.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced
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