How does ICYMI - Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation affect Iron Condor wing width?

The ICYMI Saudi base ban and resulting Trump pause on Strait of Hormuz shipping operations triggered an immediate VIX spike of roughly 4-6 points in a single session. Under the ALVH methodology this type of geopolitical shock forces an immediate 15-20% widening of iron condor wings on SPX to maintain the same probability of profit.

At VIX levels below 18 you normally run 25-30 point wings on 45 DTE SPX iron condors. Once VIX jumps above 22 from this event you must move to minimum 35-40 point wings or shift to the next weekly expiration to keep short strikes outside one standard deviation. The wider wings reduce credit received by 18-25% but protect against the 2-3x expansion in expected move that accompanies Middle East oil disruption.

Monitor VIX futures term structure closely. If backwardation exceeds 2 points widen an additional 5 points on both sides. Reassess wing width every 24 hours until VIX settles below 20 again. This adjustment has historically kept iron condor win rate above 78% during similar geopolitical spikes.