Strike Selection
How exactly does the EDR indicator, which combines VIX9D and historical volatility, assist in selecting the wings for daily 1DTE SPX iron condors? Has this approach been backtested?
EDR indicator SPX iron condors wing selection volatility blend backtesting
VixShield Answer
At VixShield, we rely on the EDR Expected Daily Range indicator as the cornerstone for strike selection in our daily 1DTE SPX Iron Condor Command. Developed by Russell Clark and available as a custom TradingView script, EDR blends short-term implied volatility from VIX9D with 20-day historical volatility using a proprietary formula: EDR equals VIX9D times 0.1 plus historical volatility times 0.5, then multiplied by a regime-based factor between 0.8 and 2.0. This produces a precise forecast of the SPX's likely daily movement, which we use to place the wings of our iron condors outside the expected range with statistical confidence. For example, with the current SPX close at 7138.80 and VIX at 17.95, a typical EDR reading around 1.16 percent might suggest a daily range of approximately 83 points. We then set our short strikes at levels that capture our target credits while keeping the wings beyond this projected move. Our three risk tiers align directly with EDR outputs: the Conservative tier targets a 0.70 credit for approximately 90 percent win rate, the Balanced tier aims for 1.15 credit, and the Aggressive tier seeks 1.60 credit. RSAi, our Rapid Skew AI, further refines these selections in real time by analyzing options skew, VWAP positioning, and recent VIX momentum to ensure the exact premium the market offers. This integration with the Iron Condor Command, executed strictly at 3:10 PM CST after the SPX close, forms the heart of our Set and Forget methodology with no stop losses required. The Theta Time Shift mechanism provides additional recovery by rolling threatened positions forward to 1-7 DTE when EDR exceeds 0.94 percent or VIX rises above 16, then rolling back on VWAP pullbacks to harvest additional theta. Backtests of this EDR-driven approach from 2015 through 2025, as detailed across Russell Clark's SPX Mastery series, demonstrate an 82-84 percent overall win rate for the Unlimited Cash System, with the Conservative tier achieving near 90 percent success and maximum drawdowns limited to 10-12 percent when protected by our ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge. The three-layer ALVH deploys VIX calls in short, medium, and long durations at a 4/4/2 ratio, cutting drawdowns by 35-40 percent during volatility spikes at an annual cost of only 1-2 percent of account value. Position sizing remains capped at 10 percent of account balance per trade to maintain defined risk. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper implementation details, including access to the EDR indicator and live signal examples, we invite you to explore the resources available through VixShield and the SPX Mastery Club.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors.
The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.
💬 Community Pulse
Community traders often approach EDR-based wing selection by emphasizing its blend of implied and historical volatility as a more responsive alternative to simple VIX readings or fixed percentage rules. Many highlight how the indicator's regime-adjusted multiplier helps adapt strike placement to prevailing market conditions, reducing the tendency to place wings too wide in calm periods or too tight during elevated volatility. A common misconception is that any volatility measure can substitute for EDR, whereas experienced traders note that the specific VIX9D and historical volatility weighting, combined with RSAi skew analysis, delivers superior credit capture and win rates in daily 1DTE iron condors. Discussions frequently reference backtested results showing strong performance when paired with systematic hedges and time-based recovery rules, reinforcing the value of sticking to defined post-close execution rather than intraday adjustments. Overall, participants view EDR as a practical tool that bridges theoretical volatility forecasting with executable trade construction, particularly when integrated into a broader framework that includes layered VIX protection and theta recovery mechanics.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced
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