Should I adjust position size before Australia Monthly Inflation Gauge showed "Monthly inflation rose again in April"?
VixShield Answer
No. Do not adjust position size ahead of the Australia Monthly Inflation Gauge release.
SPX iron condors are driven by US volatility and macro events, not Australian CPI data. The Australian Monthly Inflation Gauge has negligible direct impact on VIX or SPX implied volatility. Historical correlation between this release and next-day VIX movement is near zero.
Stick to the ALVH methodology: size your iron condor based on current VIX level, account risk tolerance, and available wing width. If VIX is below 15, maintain full size with wider wings (50-60 points). If VIX is 18+, reduce size 25-40% and tighten wings to 30-40 points to manage gamma exposure.
Reevaluate position size only after the data is released and you observe the actual VIX reaction and SPX price action. Premature size changes based on expected Australian inflation numbers introduce unnecessary decision risk and usually leads to over-trading.
Trade the VIX regime you are in right now. Let the inflation print confirm or shift the volatility environment, then adjust size and wing width accordingly using ALVH rules.
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