Should I adjust position size before Bitcoin eyes $75K after 'most hawkish' FOMC as oil hits highest since 2022?

Current VIX is hovering near 18 after the hawkish FOMC, which remains in the moderate zone for SPX iron condors under the ALVH methodology. At this level the edge favors selling 45-50 delta short strangles with 1.5 to 2 times wing width on the 0DTE to 3DTE timeframe, but position size must stay disciplined.

Do not increase size ahead of Bitcoin breaking 75K or oil at multi-year highs. Both assets are signaling higher realized volatility that will bleed into equities within 24-48 hours. ALVH dictates keeping size at 0.5-0.75 of your normal unit until VIX either settles below 16 or pushes above 22 and gives a clear regime signal. Wider wings (2.0x or more) are required right now to absorb the expected gamma scalping from equity traders reacting to crypto and energy moves.

Adjust only after the next VIX print confirms direction. If VIX climbs above 20 on the 10-day realized move, cut size another 25 percent and move to 2.25x wings. Current macro overlap makes this a preservation setup, not an expansion setup. Trade the iron condor you sized last week; do not layer on fresh risk until the volatility signal clarifies.