Should I adjust position size before Durable Goods Orders MoM?

Before Durable Goods Orders MoM, reduce position size by 30-50% if you are already in an SPX iron condor or avoid opening fresh positions entirely. This release frequently triggers 0.4-0.8% SPX spikes that can breach short strikes even when VIX is moderate.

Under ALVH methodology, check the three conditions: current VIX, IV percentile of the front month, and the 1-hour implied move priced into the options. If any two are elevated heading into the number, stay flat or trade half-size wings. Durable Goods tends to push the 1-hour implied move to 0.55-0.75%, which is outside the safe zone for standard 45-50 delta short strikes.

Wing-width management rule: if you must stay in, widen your wings by one additional contract level (e.g., move from 25-point to 30- or 35-point wings) and drop size proportionally. This preserves the same dollar risk while giving the position more room to breathe through the headline volatility.

Trade the reaction, not the announcement. Let the initial knee-jerk move settle, reassess the new VIX level and spot gamma, then decide whether to add back size. Position sizing discipline before high-impact data is the single biggest edge most iron condor traders can apply.