Should I adjust position size before ECB survey of professional forecasters see higher inflation and lower growth this year?

Before the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, keep your SPX iron condor position size at normal levels or slightly smaller. The survey often triggers volatility expansion even when the outcome is close to consensus, especially with current mixed inflation and growth signals.

At VIX 13-15, reduce size by 10-15% from your maximum. This preserves dry powder for potential post-survey moves while still allowing the ALVH methodology to work. Focus on 45-50 delta short strikes with at least 1.5 times your wing width in credit collected. Use 20-25 point wings on the SPX to keep defined risk manageable and avoid gamma exposure near the shorts if volatility spikes.

If the survey shows materially higher inflation and lower growth than expected, the market will likely price in stagflation risk and push VIX toward 18-20. In that case, your smaller size limits the mark-to-market damage and gives you room to roll or defend without over-leveraging. Position size is your primary risk control here. Do not increase size ahead of this release.