Should I adjust position size before Exports YoY?

Before Exports YoY data, reduce position size by 30-50% if you are already in an iron condor or wait to enter new positions until after the release. This number is a high-impact release that often moves the SPX 0.6-1.2% in the first 30 minutes, easily testing short strikes even when VIX is in the 13-16 range.

Under the ALVH methodology, we stay disciplined with defined risk only. When macro catalysts like Exports YoY, CPI, or FOMC are scheduled, the probability of the underlying tagging the short delta increases sharply, which violates the “avoid large volatility holes” rule. Smaller size protects your daily P&L volatility and keeps your wing-width management intact.

If your current condor has less than 21 days to expiration, cut size immediately and consider rolling the untested side wider by one additional wing (e.g., from 25-point to 30- or 35-point wings) to restore the 1:3 risk-to-reward profile. Trade the reduced size through the event, then scale back to normal size once the first 15-minute candle settles and VIX stabilizes. This keeps drawdowns inside 1-2% of account equity instead of the 4-6% that full-size positions often see on surprise prints.