Should I adjust position size before Hormuz shipping traffic remains at a trickle as US-Iran deadlock deepens - Reuters?

With VIX likely climbing into the mid-20s on the Hormuz headline, reduce position size immediately by 40-50 percent on any new SPX iron condors. The ALVH framework flags this as elevated regime risk where implied volatility expansion outpaces realized moves and skew steepens, eroding the edge of short premium structures.

Keep wing width at 50-60 points on the 45 DTE condors you trade. Wider wings increase gamma exposure exactly when you want to minimize it during geopolitical shocks. Enter only after VIX peaks and begins to roll over, targeting the 0.15-0.20 delta zone on both sides.

Current environment favors smaller notional risk per trade, wider profit targets of 25-30 percent, and tighter stop-loss at 1.8x credit received. Avoid adding to existing positions until shipping data clarifies or VIX drops below 22. Trade count should drop to one or two per week maximum until the deadlock eases.