Should I adjust position size before ICYMI - Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation?
VixShield Answer
Current VIX around 18-22 range after the news spike calls for immediate position size reduction on any open SPX iron condors. Cut exposure by 30-50 percent until volatility stabilizes and the ALVH setup resets.
The ALVH methodology demands waiting for VIX to settle below 20 with clear mean-reversion signals before adding size. This geopolitical event has pushed implied volatility higher and widened expected move, eroding your edge on short premium. Do not add to existing wings until the 1SD short strikes realign with the post-event VIX term structure.
Manage wing width aggressively: tighten to 40-50 points on the put and call sides instead of standard 60-80 to limit capital at risk while VIX stays elevated. Roll the untested side inward if it has moved beyond 0.15 delta to recenter the condor.
Reduce overall notional by half on any new trades this week. Monitor VIX futures premium and spot VIX for the next 48 hours. Only scale back to full size once VIX closes below 19 and the Strait news flow calms. Protect capital first, then resume standard ALVH sizing.
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