Should I adjust position size before Iran war stasis brings US inflation expectations back to the boil - Reuters?
VixShield Answer
Position size should stay fixed based on your predefined ALVH risk parameters regardless of the Reuters headline. Current VIX levels above 20 already price in meaningful geopolitical premium, which typically benefits iron condor sellers through elevated credit received. Do not reduce size preemptively on macro speculation.
Focus instead on wing-width management. With SPX implied volatility elevated, maintain 1.5 to 2 times normal wing width to keep defined risk at 1-2% of portfolio per trade. This preserves the same dollar risk while harvesting the richer premium. ALVH methodology calls for sizing strictly by account risk tolerance and current VIX regime, not by interpreting news flow.
If inflation expectations begin repricing higher, realized volatility will likely follow, naturally eroding iron condor value. Your edge remains mechanical: sell the inflated volatility, manage winners at 50% of credit, and roll or close losers only when tested beyond your outer wings. Adjusting size now based on this single headline introduces emotional bias that violates the systematic approach required for long-term iron condor profitability. Keep position size consistent, widen wings proportionally to VIX, and let the probabilities work.
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