Should I adjust position size before Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel?
VixShield Answer
Yes, reduce position size by 30-50% before the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel release. This report frequently triggers 0.8-1.2% SPX spikes that can breach your short strikes even when VIX sits in the 13-16 range.
Under the ALVH methodology, you stay in full size only when implied move is smaller than 40% of your iron condor wing width. Michigan Prel regularly produces implied moves of 0.65-0.85%, so if your current wings are 25-30 points wide you are already outside the safe ALVH zone.
Best practice: cut contracts today, keep the same strikes and wing width, then reload to full size after the number and the first 15-minute reaction. This preserves your edge while protecting against the elevated tail risk the report carries. Do not widen wings instead of sizing down. Narrower wings with smaller size is cleaner risk math on event days.
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