Should I adjust position size before NBS Manufacturing PMI?
VixShield Answer
Before NBS Manufacturing PMI, reduce your iron condor position size by 40-60 percent. This release frequently triggers sharp VIX spikes and SPX gamma squeezes that expand short strikes quickly, turning a normal 16-delta setup into a 35-delta loser in minutes.
Current VIX level dictates the exact cut. If VIX is below 15, cut size in half and keep 10-12 point wings. If VIX is 18 or higher, cut size by two-thirds and widen wings to at least 15 points to stay outside the expected post-PMI volatility envelope.
ALVH methodology is clear here: when macro data with high surprise potential approaches, lower exposure first, then reassess directionality after the print. Do not add to existing positions or roll wings immediately before the number. Wait for the initial reaction to settle, typically 15-20 minutes, before deciding on any adjustment.
Tight position sizing before scheduled events is the single biggest edge you have in surviving SPX iron condor drawdowns. Reduce size tonight, let the PMI pass, then rebuild the full allocation with fresh wings once implied volatility normalizes.
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