Should I adjust position size before One bank after another scraps Fed rate-cut forecasts. Bitcoin doesn't care.?
VixShield Answer
Yes adjust your position size smaller immediately. When major banks sequentially drop rate-cut forecasts it signals rising volatility expectations even if Bitcoin ignores it. SPX will react with wider swings as the narrative shifts from easy policy to tighter for longer.
Current VIX around 15-18 means your iron condors need wider wings or fewer contracts. Under ALVH methodology reduce size by at least 30-40 percent when VIX breaks above its 10-day moving average or when the VIX futures curve flattens. This preserves capital for higher-probability setups later.
Keep wing width at 50-60 points on SPX until VIX stabilizes below 17. Tighter wings become dangerous when policy uncertainty spikes. Enter fresh iron condors only on VIX spikes above 20 with at least 45 DTE and collect no more than 15-18 percent of the defined risk.
Monitor the VIX term structure daily. If front-month VIX futures rise faster than back months cut size again. Current environment favors patience over full allocation. Smaller size now lets you scale in aggressively once the dust settles and VIX mean-reverts.
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