Should I adjust position size before Price predictions 5/4: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA?
VixShield Answer
Before reviewing any price predictions on 5/4, reduce your iron condor position size if current VIX is above 18 or if you are already carrying open SPX iron condors from prior weeks.
ALVH methodology requires you to first control exposure, then assess directional bias. Price predictions are secondary. If VIX is elevated or your portfolio delta is outside -0.15 to +0.15, cut size by 30-50% immediately. This keeps wing-width risk manageable and prevents one volatility spike from dominating P&L.
Once size is adjusted to 1-2% of portfolio risk per condor, review the 5/4 forecasts only to decide whether to tighten wings or shift strikes. Never increase size based on a prediction. Fixed fractional sizing before any forecast keeps the trade mechanical and protects the edge of selling premium on SPX.
Current rule: VIX > 18 or net delta outside neutral band equals smaller size today. Adjust first, predict second.
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