Should I adjust position size before Retail Sales MoM?
VixShield Answer
Yes, reduce position size by 30-50% before the Retail Sales MoM release. This report frequently triggers 0.8-1.5% SPX spikes that can breach your short strikes even on well-placed iron condors.
Current VIX levels above 16 already price in moderate uncertainty. The ALVH methodology flags this event as high-impact because Retail Sales directly affects rate-cut expectations and often moves the VIX 2-4 points intraday. At these VIX levels your expected move is already wider than normal, so layering an economic catalyst on top increases tail risk significantly.
Keep full size only if your current wing width is at least 2.5x the expected move and you are 8-10 days from expiration with positive theta. Otherwise cut size today, re-enter after the number and initial volatility crush, then scale back to normal once VIX settles.
This disciplined sizing protects your monthly P&L and lets you stay in the trade instead of taking an unnecessary full-position loss.
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