Should I adjust position size before What are the analyst calls ahead of the US non-farm payrolls later today??
VixShield Answer
Before trading ahead of todays US non-farm payrolls keep your SPX iron condor position size at normal levels or slightly reduced. High-impact events like NFP routinely spike implied volatility and can produce 1-2% gaps that test your short strikes even if the eventual move reverses.
Current VIX around 18-20 already prices in moderate uncertainty. Analyst calls show a wide dispersion with consensus expecting 140-160k jobs added but ranges from 80k to 220k. This uncertainty usually keeps the market in a tight range until the print then triggers a sharp 30-50 point move in SPX.
Under the ALVH methodology stay disciplined: if your current condor delta is under 12 and you are at least 45 DTE with wing width at 1.5-2.0 times your credit received do not increase size. Only add contracts if you are entering a fresh position after the event with fresh credit and defined 1.6x wing buffer.
Manage existing wings by monitoring the 0.15 delta level on both sides. If either short strike reaches 0.25 delta before expiration roll the threatened side out 5-7 days for additional credit rather than widening wings mid-event. Position size first then let the event pass with neutral exposure.
Put This Knowledge to Work
VixShield delivers professional iron condor signals every trading day, built on the methodology behind these answers.
Start Free Trial →