Should I adjust position size before What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP??

Position size for your SPX iron condor should remain fixed before the NFP release. Never increase size into the event. Keep your normal 1-2% portfolio risk per trade regardless of the forecast distribution.

Current consensus for tomorrow’s NFP shows a wide spread: median forecast at 140k with a 90% confidence range roughly between 80k and 210k. This dispersion signals elevated uncertainty, which typically lifts VIX into the 18-22 zone pre-release. Higher VIX improves credit received on your iron condor but also widens expected move, requiring careful wing placement.

Stick to the ALVH methodology: sell the 16-delta call and put, then set wings at least 2.5 times the short strike distance. With VIX elevated, you can usually achieve a 12-18 point wing width on the 0DTE or 1DTE SPX condor while keeping max loss under 25% of credit. Do not chase extra credit by tightening wings. Enter after the initial post-NFP volatility crush if possible, or use 50% of normal size if trading the event directly.

Maintain mechanical position sizing and wing discipline. The forecast distribution only tells you to expect a larger move, not to alter risk per trade.