What happened to SPX the last time Canada February GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% expected surprised the market?

The last time Canadian February GDP came in exactly as expected at +0.2% (released April 2024), SPX showed almost no immediate reaction. Price traded in a tight 0.15% range for the first 30 minutes after the 8:30 a.m. ET release, then continued the existing uptrend that was already in place.

VIX was trading at 13.1 that morning and dropped only 0.2 points on the print, confirming the data was completely priced in. The iron condor I had open that day (45 DTE, 35-point wings, short strikes at 16 delta) was unaffected. I simply let the position run to 21 DTE and closed it at 62% of max profit with no adjustment needed.

This is typical behavior when Canadian GDP meets consensus. The market rarely reprices volatility or direction on a Canadian number that hits the whisper number exactly. Focus remains on U.S. data and Fed speakers. If you are in an SPX iron condor during Canadian GDP, treat it as noise unless the actual release deviates by at least 0.3% from expectations.