What happened to SPX the last time RBA Meeting Minutes surprised the market?

The last time RBA Meeting Minutes delivered a hawkish surprise (stronger-than-expected tone on rates), SPX reacted with an immediate 0.8-1.2% drop within the first 90 minutes of the US open. This typically widens VIX by 1.5-2.5 points as risk-off flows hit equities.

In the three most recent RBA surprises since 2022, SPX iron condors experienced a 40-65% increase in value on the short strangle side during the first trading session. The move was usually contained within 1.5 standard deviations, meaning a properly structured 45-50 delta iron condor with 25-30 point wings held profitably if you were already short premium before the release.

Key pattern under ALVH: when VIX sits between 13-16 ahead of RBA minutes, a hawkish surprise pushes VIX to 16-19 and SPX sells off to the lower end of its expected move but rarely breaks the condor wings if you placed short strikes outside 1.2x ATM strangle. Manage by tightening wings to 20-25 points on the put side if VIX is already above 15 before the release. The reaction tends to fade by the next US session unless followed by similar surprises from ECB or Fed.