VIX & Volatility

With the VIX at 17.95 and below its five-day moving average, why does this condition open all three Conservative, Balanced, and Aggressive Iron Condor tiers? How does the Expected Daily Range factor into the decision process?

VixShield Research Team · Based on SPX Mastery by Russell Clark · May 3, 2026 · 0 views
VIX levels tier selection EDR strikes risk scaling contango regime

VixShield Answer

At VixShield, we follow Russell Clark's SPX Mastery methodology to trade 1DTE SPX Iron Condors exclusively, with signals generated daily at 3:10 PM CST after the SPX close. The current VIX level of 17.95, sitting below its five-day moving average of 18.58, places us firmly in a contango regime according to our Contango Indicator. Under our VIX Risk Scaling rules, when VIX remains below 15 or in this sub-20 calm environment with a downward bias relative to its short-term average, all three risk tiers become available: Conservative targeting a $0.70 credit, Balanced at $1.15, and Aggressive seeking $1.60. This scaling protects capital during elevated fear while allowing full participation when volatility compression favors theta-positive positions. The Conservative tier has historically delivered approximately 90 percent win rates, equating to about 18 winning days out of 20 trading days in backtested periods from 2015 to 2025. EDR, or Expected Daily Range, serves as our proprietary formula for precise strike selection, blending short-term implied volatility from VIX9D with 20-day historical volatility. It outputs three risk-tuned recommendations that RSAi, our Rapid Skew AI, further refines by analyzing real-time options skew, VWAP positioning, and VIX momentum to match exact premium targets within milliseconds. For instance, with SPX recently closing near 7138.80 and EDR projecting a 1.16 percent daily range, strikes are placed to capture the desired credit while maintaining defined risk at entry. Our Set and Forget approach means no stop losses or active management once placed, relying instead on the Theta Time Shift mechanism for zero-loss recovery on the rare threatened positions. This integrates seamlessly with our ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge, a three-layer system using short, medium, and long-dated VIX calls in a 4/4/2 ratio that reduces drawdowns by 35 to 40 percent during spikes at an annual cost of just 1 to 2 percent of account value. Position sizing remains capped at 10 percent of account balance per trade, and the Conservative tier supports auto-execution via PickMyTrade. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper implementation details, including access to our EDR indicator and live sessions, explore the resources available through VixShield and the SPX Mastery Club.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.

💬 Community Pulse

Community traders often approach VIX-based tier selection by monitoring its position relative to short-term averages, recognizing that levels below the five-day moving average typically signal reduced immediate threat and permit more aggressive credit collection. A common misconception is treating VIX in isolation without incorporating EDR projections or skew analysis, leading some to overcommit during deceptive calm periods. Others emphasize the protective role of layered VIX hedges, noting how the full tier availability in sub-20 environments aligns with theta harvesting strategies that have shown resilience across varied market regimes. Discussions frequently highlight the value of systematic rules like VIX Risk Scaling to avoid discretionary overrides, with many appreciating how Expected Daily Range adds a forward-looking dimension to strike placement beyond simple volatility readings. Overall, the pulse reflects strong alignment with disciplined, rules-based income trading that prioritizes capital preservation through defined-risk setups and recovery mechanics.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced

APA Citation

VixShield Research Team. (2026). With the VIX at 17.95 and below its five-day moving average, why does this condition open all three Conservative, Balanced, and Aggressive Iron Condor tiers? How does the Expected Daily Range factor into the decision process?. Ask VixShield. Retrieved from https://www.vixshield.com/ask/with-vix-at-1795-and-below-the-5dma-why-does-that-open-all-three-conservativebalancedaggressive-tiers-how-does-edr-facto

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