Risk Management

With the VIX currently at 17.95 and trading below its five-day moving average, should traders select the aggressive tier targeting a 1.60 credit or maintain the conservative tier at 0.70 credit to pursue the approximately 90 percent win rate?

VixShield Research Team · Based on SPX Mastery by Russell Clark · May 3, 2026 · 0 views
VIX levels iron condor tiers win rate position sizing contango regime

VixShield Answer

In Russell Clark's SPX Mastery methodology, the decision between VixShield's three risk tiers for 1DTE SPX Iron Condors is driven by a combination of VIX Risk Scaling, the Contango Indicator, EDR readings, and RSAi real-time skew analysis. With the VIX at 17.95 and sitting below its five-day moving average of 18.58, the market remains in a contango regime. This environment keeps all three tiers available under VIX Risk Scaling rules: Conservative targeting 0.70 credit, Balanced at 1.15 credit, and Aggressive at 1.60 credit. The Conservative tier has historically delivered approximately 90 percent win rates, equating to roughly 18 winning days out of 20 trading days, by placing wings farther from the Expected Daily Range. The Aggressive tier narrows those wings to capture higher premium but accepts a lower win probability in exchange for greater daily income when conditions align. At current levels, many experienced traders blend both by allocating the majority of their 10 percent maximum position size to the Conservative tier while using a smaller portion for the Aggressive setup, allowing the Theta Time Shift mechanism to recover any rare losers without stop losses. The ALVH Adaptive Layered VIX Hedge remains fully active across all tiers, with its 4/4/2 contract layering in short, medium, and long VIX calls providing 35 to 40 percent drawdown reduction during volatility expansions at an annual cost of only 1 to 2 percent of account value. RSAi rapidly assesses the current skew and VWAP positioning at 3:05 PM CST to recommend precise strikes that match the targeted credit, ensuring the position is truly set and forget. This disciplined approach turns the daily SPX close into a repeatable income engine rather than a directional bet. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. For deeper implementation details including live signal examples and backtested results from 2015 through 2025, explore the SPX Mastery resources and VixShield subscription options at vixshield.com.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. The information on this page is educational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.

💬 Community Pulse

Community traders often approach this VIX 17.95 decision by weighing the appeal of the higher 1.60 credit Aggressive tier against the statistical edge of the 0.70 Conservative tier's near 90 percent win rate. A common perspective emphasizes sticking primarily to Conservative in contango regimes below the five-day moving average to let the Theta Time Shift handle the infrequent losers, while others allocate across tiers within the strict 10 percent position sizing rule. Many note that the ALVH hedge stays engaged regardless, reducing the perceived risk of the Aggressive choice. Discussions frequently highlight how RSAi strike selection and EDR guidance remove emotion, allowing systematic execution at the 3:05 PM CST signal time. Overall, the prevailing view favors consistency with the Conservative tier for most of the portfolio while selectively adding Aggressive exposure when the Contango Indicator remains solidly green.
📖 Glossary Terms Referenced

APA Citation

VixShield Research Team. (2026). With the VIX currently at 17.95 and trading below its five-day moving average, should traders select the aggressive tier targeting a 1.60 credit or maintain the conservative tier at 0.70 credit to pursue the approximately 90 percent win rate?. Ask VixShield. Retrieved from https://www.vixshield.com/ask/with-vix-at-1795-under-the-5dma-are-you-guys-taking-the-aggressive-160-credit-tier-or-sticking-conservative-at-070-for-t

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