Expected Move (EM)
Standard daily price range estimate for SPX options strike placement
The projected daily price range for SPX calculated from VIX. Used alongside EDR for strike selection and risk assessment in all SPX Mastery strategies. The Expected Move represents a one-standard-deviation range — meaning SPX statistically stays within this range approximately 68% of trading days.
The Expected Move serves as the baseline range estimate before EDR refinement. It is calculated from current SPX price and VIX, divided by the square root of 252 (trading days). EDR then applies multipliers (0.8–2.0) to this baseline to produce tier-specific strike recommendations. The EM is checked as part of the pre-close scan: if EDR × SPX produces a tight expected range and VIX is below 15, aggressive High-tier Iron Condors are appropriate. If EDR is elevated (> 0.94% of SPX), the Temporal Theta Martingale forward-roll trigger is activated.
Iron Condor Command